The Ageing Phenomenon

imageThey say Al-Khidr (the Green Man) was with Hazrat Ibrahim(as). A millennia later, he was a teacher, of Hazrat Musa(as) as stated in Surah Kahaf. And then, so many auliya have testified they met him over the ages. Al-Khidr has been eternal. We also know Hazrat Nuh lived 950 years in his long struggle for righteousness. Eternity has long been a desire of humans, but we realise it is not a physical possibility for us commoners. At the least, we can crave an extension of our present day life and so we endeavour to achieve this dream.

Science has reached a stage where digitalisation of medicine will lead us to that extension of life expectancy. With the mapping of the human genome, we are able to predict in advance illnesses and counter them. Also with the concept of stem cells, we are experimenting developing human organs. So, when organs fail, then we shall replace those organs – imagine hearts and livers being replaced with new ones. Its almost like a factory, with machinery parts being repaired and sometimes replaced.

The above does not guarantee the quality of existence, as we slow down with age. Therefore, a further push to actually reduce the ageing effect on the body is underway. Age registers on us, because excess air enters between cells during a lifetime. This makes cells sluggish and causes ageing. Scientists are in search to find a cure and expectation is eventually we shall live long with little signs of the deadly age virus.

Already countries like Japan are facing this health and age revolution. It is just the beginning! A life expectancy of 100-120 years is well on the cards. A new world and the behavioural, societal and economic impact is unimaginable.

An ageing population means the demographics will change dramatically. The population base will be lopsided. Older people, fewer births and therefore fewer younger ones. The behavioural changes are just mind boggling. From conversation, to social intercourse, to motivation of life will all change. Imagine fewer laughs, less adventure, more measured behaviour, the need for entertainment will change. People will interact very differently and that will lead to a new set of behaviours, especially in the social media age.

The second effect will be societal. Today generally people work upto 40 years and by the end of which attrition has taken over and they retire. Mostly, Maslow’s hierarchy of needs set in and humans then search for self actualisation. This is so with an average life expectancy of mid 70s. What if this climbs to well over a 100? The societal impacts are staggering. People could be working an average of 60 years and the work force will have several generations in it. From a young person of 20 to an older one of 85, with Baby Boomers, Generation X, Millennials and Generation Z all part of same set up. What would happen to sports participation and viewing. How would change be accommodated by older people, for instance rampant technological innovation. Harmony between several generations of society could be a huge problem. Society structures will change.

Economic impact will be the biggest challenge. Demographic tilt towards old age means that the pyramid of burden will reverse. Fewer will carry the responsibility of the whole. Pensions and health services will be really stretched. Many more aged will use these services and many less young will have to finance it. As few will be working (the population ages) much reliance will be on automation and computers with cognitive artificial intelligence. Thus the labour force will be dramatically changed and this will also effect corporate working. In an unimaginable corporate world, HR systems will be altered drastically, as the hunt for suitable young talent will be cut throat. How that effects the psychology of an employee is an unknown area. Maybe most humans shall want to forego responsibility and not work at all. Naturally as resources are shifted to different areas of the economy, the planning experts will have to manage this restructuring, when fiscal and money resources are reallocated. This will not happen without much resentment, hence there may be world-wide generational conflicts.

My only conclusion is, I am content that this is beyond my time.

A Quantum Leap of change in Pakistan

imagePost elections many younger people have felt dissatisfaction at the process applied during elections and (I fear) we face disenfranchising these people, who are part of the future of Pakistan. So, I have tried below to show them the philosophy of change and how what has happened in the last few days is a positive step.

A society is a web, connected, intermingled and when you move a small wheel, it will move a larger wheel and so move a still larger one and thus the societal machine will work like any other machine. Small movement, cause and effect translates into large changes over time. A small change now, leads to large change 30 years from now. An example; the creation of madrassas in the late 70’s is today a massive part of Pakistan’s social fabric.
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Thus  I watched with interest the changes which could allude to larger change, during these elections. Simple little changes.
  • young people participating
  • technology being used
  • innovative campaigning involving ground activation
  • people standing up for their legal rights
  • a self aware people
Some perturbing ones.
  • people voting more for local rights, federal consequences being less visible
  • a divide beginning to happen …so called educated v less educated
Where this change will lead to, I am not sure. As with any change and an unsure future, one is apprehensive. But change can occur in only three forms:-
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Miracle/disaster
This would be the most unplanned and therefore most change inducing. Miracles seem to have disappeared nowadays, but when they do happen they have far reaching effects. Thousands of years ago Hazrat Musa crossed the Red Sea and Pharaoh was destroyed, but we live the effects of that moment till today. I don’t think we should be awaiting a miracle, as we have been these decades in Pakistan. As far as disaster is concerned, a disaster has occurred several times in our history, like 2010 floods etc. Disasters can be a set back for years, or worse a culmination, thus causing great change. There is an impending feeling of doom in this country and a fear that disaster is approaching.  Disregard it!
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Revolution
Typically revolutions aim for utopia, they wipe out status quo and the new structures are set at utopian levels. Over time learning ensues and the revolution is institutionalized and disappears. Society starts reversing the effects of the revolution and it comes back to a more mid lane process..I don’t think we are ripe for revolution, as our belief platforms are too diverse.
China is a great example of the progressive effects of a revolution. Mao killed freely in the 40s-50s-60s. Later after his departure, in late 70s China opened up and the disciplines and hardships of Mao, led to a surge in the last 30 years.
Iran is a bad example of a revolution. A reversal of revolutionary zeal has led to a totalitarian state and the benefits of revolution have not transpired. Instead a bureaucracy has now replaced the zeal and it controls Iran. Similar events happened in the Soviet Union.
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Evolutionary Change
This has worked best over millenia of human development. Seemingly slow progress, but half a century on, a later generation looks back and says wonderingly, “look how that and that event has caused an evolution which has changed our lives.”
Evolutionary change can trend towards good, but as nations decline it can trend towards bad also. So in Yarmuk, Muslims won a hard fought battle and for the next 500 years dominated, as the way north and west was opened up. But Nero fiddled while Rome burned and while the Roman empire lasted almost 400 further years, but the decline was inexorable after that.
This evolutionary change is what I am talking about above. To all those who are upset at the elections, because there was a great deal of unfairness. “Wheels on wheels have been set in motion. Patience, this will deliver dividends and progression will happen. You watch. Be patient. Inshallah the wheels are in motion, your Pakistan will change.”
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